Preoperative prediction model to evaluate salvage surgery in patients with recurrent or second primary oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

Objective: In approximately 50% of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC), the disease progresses after curative surgery. However, the role of salvage surgery (SS) is controversial, and life expectancy after SS is unknown. Methods: In this study, 262 patients with OCSCC with locoregional recurrence and second primary OCSCC were retrospectively enrolled and divided into a resectable (55.0%, 144/262) and unresectable (45.0%, 118/262) groups. After excluding neck recurrence only, SS had been performed 195 times in the resectable group. The corresponding preoperative clinicopathologic factors and postsurgery survival (PSS) of each SS were pooled for analysis. Results: Median survival after disease progression was 64.2 and 10.4 months for the resectable and unresectable groups, respectively. In the resectable group, one-fifth (19.5%, 37/190) of the patients died within 1 year of SS (PSS < 1 year), and one-third (32.8%, 64/195) of the patients had undergone SS two or more times. The interval from the last surgery ≤ 12 months, depth of invasion of the last surgery > 1 cm, and clinical evidence of nodal disease at the preoperative evaluation were independent predictors of poor PSS. A scoring prediction model was established with 1 point for each factor. The results revealed 1-year postsurgery death rates of 10.3% in the low-risk group (score: 0–1) and 48.6% in the high-risk group (score: 2 or 3) (P < 0.001). Conclusions: In conclusion, an effective scoring model predicting life expectancy after SS for patients with OCSCC was established.