Probabilistic framework for assessing the arsenic exposure risk from cooked fish consumption

Geogenic arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater is a major ecological and human health problem in southwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the human health risks from consuming raw and cooked fish that were cultured in groundwater As-contaminated ponds in Taiwan by linking a physiologically based pharmacokinetics model and a Weibull dose–response model. Results indicate that As levels in baked, fried, and grilled fish were higher than those of raw fish. Frying resulted in the greatest increase in As concentration, followed by grilling, with baking affecting the As concentration the least. Simulation results show that, following consumption of baked As-contaminated fish, the health risk to humans is <10−6 excess bladder cancer risk level for lifetime exposure; as the incidence ratios of liver and lung cancers are generally acceptable at risk ranging from 10−6 to 10−4, the consumption of baked As-contaminated fish is unlikely to pose a significant risk to human health. However, contaminated fish cooked by frying resulted in significant health risks, showing the highest cumulative incidence ratios of liver cancer. We also show that males have higher cumulative incidence ratio of liver cancer than females. We found that although cooking resulted in an increase for As levels in As-contaminated fish, the risk to human health of consuming baked fish is nevertheless acceptable. We suggest the adoption of baking as a cooking method and warn against frying As-contaminated fish. We conclude that the concentration of contaminants after cooking should be taken into consideration when assessing the risk to human health.