2026-11-092026-11-09https://scholars.csmu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/38704Airborne transmission is known to be a route of infection for diseases. About 15 million (> 25%) of 57 million annual deaths worldwide are estimated to be related directly to infectious diseases. The objective of this study was to explore a framework to clearly quantify probabilistically risk analysis of population transmission dynamics based on the relationships among influenza virus-human immunity dynamics, characteristics of exhaled particle droplet, and the optimal dose-response curves of airborne infectious disease during infection within an individual. Specifically, the major objectives of this 2-year project are fourfold: (1) To estimate the characteristics of exhaled infectious doses associated with the virus dynamics and human immune response; (2) To conduct an experiment for respiratory droplet estimation of particle size distribution and number concentration; (3) To estimate the transmission rates of the multiple exposures routes and concerned the best fitted dose-response curves for influenza virus A infected human beings; (4) Probability risk analysis on transmission potential based on population dynamics models and related integrated mathematical models. We believe that the framework can provide good estimation methods and application for size distribution of exhaled bioaerosol correlated to influenza transmission probability of indoor airborne infectious, and also provide a index basis for modeling effectiveness of engineering control measures and intervention of public health in the future.空氣傳染目前為已知之疾病傳染途徑。每年全世界有五千七百萬之死亡病例 發生，其中更有一千五百多萬之死亡病例（約百分之二十五）與傳染性疾病有關， 且四百多萬死亡病例（約百分之七）是由病毒傳染性疾病所造成。本研究之整體 目標為提供一個可量化的風險管理架構，探討呼吸性傳染病於族群傳輸動態中之 傳輸潛能，依據人體中流感病毒-人體免疫動態情形、人體呼出生物氣膠特性與 最佳劑量反應曲線三者之關係建立此架構。具體而言，本計劃二年的目的分別為 下列四點：(1)本研究試圖探討流行性感冒由人體所呼出的生物氣膠及流感病毒 顆粒對於人體免疫動態之關連性；(2)本研究將進行實驗以推估氣懸病毒顆粒之 粒徑分佈與病毒顆粒之粒數濃度特性；(3)本研究欲調查相異之暴露途徑具有之 傳輸潛能以及當人體感染時最佳擬合劑量反應之關係；及(4)本研究實驗之結果 將可應用於相關整合性數學模式，模擬室內環境中室內呼吸性傳染病傳輸機率風 險分析。我們相信，此架構可提供推估生物氣膠之粒徑分佈與流行性感冒傳輸機 率之關聯性與應用，亦可作為未來發展工程控制方法的有效性及公共衛生政策干 預之依據。呼吸性傳染病粒徑分佈傳輸機率模擬公共衛生Respiratory infectionsParticle size distributionTransmission probabilityModelingPublic HealthProject